NOAA Aurora 30-Minute Forecast - NASA Science
(Grades K-12) A map of Earth showing aurora forecasts, updated every 30 minutes, with description and links to additional information.
science.nasa.govHere's the latest overview of NOAA aurora forecasting as of now.
Key sources to check for up-to-the-minute forecasts:
- NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) Aurora 30-Minute Forecast: short-term, real-time view of aurora location and intensity based on OVATION model. This is the primary, official NOAA product for near-term visibility.[3]
- SWPC Aurora Dashboard (experimental): provides a broader, interactive overview and data feeds, useful for researchers and enthusiasts tracking multiple indicators.[6][7]
- NASA and partner outlets often summarize NOAA forecasts and provide maps or alerts for viewer-friendly planning, though NOAA remains the primary source for official forecasts.[4]
What to look for when planning aurora viewing:
- OVATION model outputs: alerts on predicted aurora location and intensity with lead times typically 30–90 minutes, useful for short-notice viewing windows.[3]
- Kp index and Ovation maps: Kp gives a fast sense of geomagnetic activity; Ovation maps offer probability of seeing aurora at given locations and include time-averaged visuals.[2][3]
- Regional viewing chances: NOAA forecasts translate to different likelihoods across latitudes; higher latitudes (e.g., northern Scandinavia, Alaska, northern Canada) usually have the best odds, with occasional opportunities farther south during stronger events.[3]
A quick how-to for checking in real time from Paris:
- Note that Paris is far from typical aurora viewing latitudes, so sightings are unlikely except during strong solar storms. For awareness, you can monitor the 30-minute forecast page to assess timing and potential extended visibility if storm strength increases.[3]
- If you’re planning travel or a dedicated viewing night, consult Space Weather Prediction Center’s aurora dashboard and compare with local clear-sky conditions on the same day.
Illustrative example (typical workflow):
- Check the current OVATION-based forecast map to see if the predicted aurora oval overlaps your latitude tonight.
- If yes, review the 30-minute forecast for the next 2–3 hours to identify the best time window.
- Look at local weather and cloud cover forecasts to confirm visibility conditions.
If you’d like, I can pull the latest official forecast from NOAA SWPC and summarize the current predicted visibility for your location in Paris, along with the nearest high-probability viewing regions and the expected time window. I can also generate a simple viewing plan tailored to your dates and cloud cover outlook.