Latest News About Australian House Price Forecast

Here’s a concise update on the latest outlook for Australian house prices.

Key takeaways

• Short-term forecasts (2026) generally point to continued price growth in many markets, with some forecasters predicting solid gains before potential moderation later in the year. This is driven by ongoing housing demand, supply constraints, and policy settings (e.g., rate cuts and incentives).[7][8][9]
• Several major agencies and banks have published predictions of price increases in 2026, often in the range of roughly 4–8% nationally, with variation by city (Perth, Brisbane, and others sometimes leading while Sydney/Melbourne show different trajectories depending on local conditions).[6][8][9]
• By late 2026 or into 2027, some analyses warn of a potential softening or correction as (a) monetary policy tightens or slows, (b) affordability pressures persist, and (c) housing supply improves only gradually. HSBC and other outlets have flagged possible declines in some scenarios, though these remain contingent on policy and macro conditions.[3][5]

Recent forecasts by city

• Sydney and Melbourne: often cited as experiencing more moderate gains or stabilisation in 2026, with expectations of a pickup in activity from rate cuts earlier in the year, but potential pullbacks if inflation remains stubborn or rates rise again.[6][7]
• Brisbane, Perth, and other regional markets: frequently highlighted as having stronger price momentum in 2026 due to supply constraints and continued demand.[1][8]

Notable drivers

• Mortgages: continued lending activity and borrowing capacity influenced by monetary policy and rate expectations are central to price trajectories.[1][7]
• Supply dynamics: ongoing shortages relative to demand help support prices, though any improvement in approvals or construction costs could temper gains.[8][6]

Illustrative example

• A common forecast scenario cited in late-2025 through 2026 projects national price growth around 5–8% for 2026 in many analyses, with regional variations and some upside in units or apartments depending on policy changes and affordability measures.[9][6]

What this means for you

• If you’re considering buying or selling in 2026, expect price momentum to vary by city. Focus on local market signals (new listings, time-on-market, clearance rates) and policy developments (first home buyer incentives, tax changes) that most directly affect your target area.[9][6]
• For investment decisions, note that some forecasters see a continued price rise into 2026, but there are credible scenarios projecting moderation or a mild downturn if rates rise or inflation remains high later in the year.[5][3]

Citations

• Canstar analysis of Westpac forecasts and borrowing capacity implications.[1]
• KPMG and other forecasters’ near-term growth projections for 2024–2025 and beyond.[8][9]
• Australian news segments and market analyses noting potential 2026 moderation or downturn under certain conditions.[3][7]