Here are the latest publicly available notes on aurora forecasts, based on recent sources and typical forecasting platforms.
What’s happening now
- Space weather forecasts commonly report short-term aurora activity based on geomagnetic indices like Kp and more detailed maps (e.g., OVATION). For real-time visibility, most alerts depend on current solar wind conditions and geomagnetic activity. Updated short-term outlooks are typically published hourly or every 30 minutes by major centers. These sources can include Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA) and commercial/aggregated forecast services.
Key sources you can check now
- NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) – Aurora 30-minute forecast and short-term aurora forecast pages. These are standard references for near-term predictions and maps.
- OVATION maps (Space Weather Prediction Center) – provide a nowcast/forecast of auroral oval size and intensity, typically updated during geomagnetic activity.
- SpaceWeatherLive – up-to-date 3-hour and 24–72 hour outlooks for global and regional aurora activity, using Kp and local conditions.
- Aurora dashboards and long-range tools – some services offer day-by-day or multi-day outlooks, but these are probabilistic and depend on current solar wind parameters.
How to interpret forecasts (brief guide)
- Short-term (minutes-to-hours): Look for 30-minute forecasts or "nowcasting" maps; stronger Kp+ and larger oval area suggest higher likelihood of visible aurora.
- Medium-range (1–3 days): Forecasts often show probability bands and local conditions (moon phase, cloud cover) to estimate visibility chances.
- Local factors: Weather and light pollution, moon phase, and geographical latitude impact actual visibility; clear skies are essential.
Tips for Marseille or southern latitudes
- Northern lights are less frequent and typically fainter at mid-latitudes like Marseille; strong geomagnetic storms increase odds but visibility still depends on clear skies and local light pollution. Monitor near-term alerts from SWPC and SpaceWeatherLive and compare several sources for corroboration.
Would you like me to pull the very latest forecast from a couple of these sources and summarize the current outlook for your location or a specific date window? I can provide a concise, source-cited snapshot.
Sources
The Space Weather Prediction Center is pleased to announce the operational release of improved 30 minute auroral prediction maps beginning October 28th. These maps are based on the OVATION-2013 model, which has an expanded range of geomagnetic activity coverage. The prior version only provided estimates for geomagnetic storm levels of Kp of 7 or less, whereas the new version provides estimates for geomagnetic storms up to the maximum level of Kp = 9.
www.spaceweather.govDiscover the latest aurora borealis (northern lights) forecasts for Northern skies where aurora is common with our updated Aurora Forecast Engine. Stay informed about the best times to witness the stunning northern lights using precise data to make current aurora predictions.
auroraforecast.comMar 06Mar 07Mar 08 Active35%45%45% Minor storm45%10%05% Moderate storm05%01%01% Strong-Extreme storm01%01%01% … Mar 62.002.333.333.333.674.004.67 (G1)4.33 Mar 73.673.332.001.673.003.333.673.33
www.auroranotifier.comAurora Borealis Forecast, includes immediate, real time info on Northern Lights viewing, including Aurora Alerts
www.softservenews.comBelow you'll find the expected global geomagnetic conditions (Kp) and those for the middle and high latitudes (K-indices). These values indicate the expected geomagnetic activity for any given 3-hour period for the next three days. This is the fastest way to quickly find out what kind of geomagne...
www.spaceweatherlive.comA 45 day forecast of the Aurora Borealis & Aurora Australis. Plan your trip or aurora adventure like never before with our long range forecast.
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