Here’s a concise update on the latest coverage of the 1877-78 El Niño, sometimes called the Great or Super El Niño.
- Recent reporting emphasizes how the 1877–1878 El Niño caused widespread droughts, heatwaves, and famines that were among the deadliest climate episodes in history, with estimates ranging from tens of millions of deaths worldwide. This event is often cited to illustrate the potential for El Niño to trigger global-scale impacts when coupled with limited resilience and infrastructure at the time.[1][2]
- Modern studies reassess the event’s strength and regional effects using historical reconstructions and reanalysis data, highlighting that the 1877/78 episode was exceptionally intense but its exact magnitude is still debated due to sparse contemporaneous observations. These analyses aim to quantify the Niño-3/ Niño-3.4 indices and associated uncertainties from that era.[2]
- Some commentary and subsequent commentary-pieces have connected the historical event to current climate discussions, noting that while today’s warning systems and food-security networks reduce mortality, ongoing warming could alter the base state and frequency of extreme El Niño conditions in the future.[1]
- Be cautious with some sources and opinion pieces that extrapolate to near-term forecasts; the most rigorous scientific literature frames 1877/78 as among the strongest known ENSO events in the historical record, while acknowledging uncertainties in exact metrics due to data gaps.[2]
Illustration example
- A simplified view: in 1877/78 the Pacific warm anomaly propagated globally, suppressing monsoons in some regions and exacerbating drought in others, which in turn affected agriculture and livelihoods across multiple continents. This kind of “worldwide drought pattern” is a hallmark cited in multiple analyses of the event.[1][2]
If you’d like, I can pull a focused briefing with key dates, regional impacts, and a short timeline, or assemble a chart showing reported Niño indices from 1870–1880 based on the best available reconstructions. I can also verify any specific region you care about (e.g., India, China, Brazil) and summarize the known impacts there.
Sources
Scientists said this week that a developing 1877 el nino is likely to amplify heatwaves, droughts and floods this year. Fredi Otto, a professor in climate science at Imperial College London and a lead researcher with World Weather Attribution, said there is a “serious risk of unprecedented weather e…
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michaeltsnyder.substack.comWhen the world watches the skies turn red and the ocean swell with fury, we’re reminded of a truth: nature’s wrath isn’t just a distant threat—it’s a mirror held up to our fragile civilization. The 1877 El Niño, a cataclysmic event that wiped out millions and left continents in chaos, is now casting...
japanetwork.orgHUAI-MIN ZHANG NOAA/National Centers for Environmental Information, Asheville, North Carolina (Manuscript received 27 August 2019, in final form 29 February 2020) ABSTRACT Previous research has shown that the 1877/78 El Niño resulted in great famine events around the world. … El Niño event with a peak monthly value of the Niño-3 index of 3.58C during 1877/78, stronger than those during 1982/83, 1997/98, and 2015/16. However, an analysis of the ERSSTv5 ensemble runs indicates that the strength...
repository.library.noaa.govPrediction models are showing the potential for an historic El Niño weather season, incoming later this year and lasting into next. A Super El Niño, they’re saying.
www.yardbarker.comThe El Niño of 1877 caused droughts, famine and extreme temperatures that killed millions, a tragedy we understand better today thanks to science
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